Economic development forecast

The National Bank of Kazakhstan presented updated scenarios of economic development.
 
At the end of 2020, inflation was at the level of 7.5%. The main contribution to inflation was made by the increase in food prices. At the same time, the increase in prices for non - food products and paid services had a downward impact on the dynamics of overall inflation, Deputy Chairman of the National Bank Akylzhan Baimagambetov said in an interview with Kazakh edition.

According to the National Bank, the accelerated growth in food prices in 2020 as a result of the pandemic has become a global trend. The Government's measures helped to prevent an even greater acceleration of inflation in the Republic of Kazakhstan during the coronacrisis: the establishment of threshold prices for a number of socially important food products, a temporary reduction in VAT on this group of goods, etc.

"At the beginning of 2021, the main trends of last year are still preserved. In February 2021, inflation was 7.4%, continuing to remain above the target level of 4-6%. The increase in food prices (by 11.6% in February 2021) continues to make the greatest contribution to the formation of inflationary processes in Kazakhstan. At the same time, non - food and service components of inflation slowed to 5.2% and 3.9%, which is due to still poor consumer demand due to the persistence of quarantine restrictions in the regions of the country," Baimagambetov explained.

According to him, inflation expectations still remain high. In January-February 2021, the quantitative estimate of inflation for the year ahead remained unchanged at 6.7%.

The forecasts for the volume of oil production by the National Company KazMunayGas for 2021 were also announced.

"Since the situation changes quite often, it is difficult to say what the total production volume will be. However, we expect it to be close to the 2020 level. That is, about 21-22 mln tons, taking into account the share of Kazmunaygas in major projects," Dauren Karabayev, Deputy Chairman of the Management Board for Economics and Finance of JSC NC KazMunayGas, said during an online briefing on March 15.

According to Karabayev, the revision of the budgets of individual subsidiaries of KMG is not excluded due to the fact that changes in the level of production entail changes in the production program.