Low-carbon economic development

In accordance with Article 4.19 of the Paris Agreement, which calls on the Parties to develop long-term development strategies with low greenhouse gas emissions, the Republic of Kazakhstan is developing National Strategy for Low Carbon Economic Development 2050 (LEDS).

Project "Promoting a green economy in Kazakhstan and Central Asia for low-carbon economy development", implemented by the German society for GIZ international cooperation, supports the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan in developing the LEDS. International consultants DIWEcon and KnowlEdgeSrl, who have extensive experience in modeling economic patterns and patterns in the field of system dynamics, were involved in development of the LEDS.

From Kazakhstan, Ministry of Ecology, Geology and Natural Resources of Kazakhstan (MEGNR) takes part in development of LEDS as a political partner.

Institute of Economic Research JSC and "Zhasyl Damu" JSC are national partners and main beneficiaries of modeling tools that are being developed within the framework of this project to assess measures for a fair transition to low-carbon development path of the country.

This project will develop Strategy for Low Carbon Economic Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan as well as economic and mathematical tools for assessing measures for transition to low-carbon development, which will be transferred to national partners in the Republic of Kazakhstan.
 
Tools for assessing measures for transition to low-carbon development are dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (DCGEmodel), energy system model of the country (TIMES), and four industry models that include the industries most vulnerable to measures to reduce emissions and climate change: agriculture, population, transport, and coal mining.

Three teams of experts from GIZ, DIWEcon, KnowlEdgeSrl, ERI, Zhasyl Damu and others were created to develop these models. Daily and weekly online meetings, exchange of opinions and information between experts are carried out through MSTeams platform.

In addition, GI.organized a 10-day online training for the DCGE team on practical CGE modeling using GAMS software in August 2020. Lecturer of this training was Professor Ali Bayar, President of the EcoMod International School of Modeling.

Currently, work is underway to coordinate the assumptions and forecast of input variables for all models and their interconnection. Descriptive part of the Strategy has been prepared as well.

In general, starting low-carbon development processes and developing Strategy have great advantages:

• By planning CO2 reduction and sustainable development in all key policy areas until 2050, the country can develop and implement a path that takes into account the interaction, synergy and trade-offs of all its national priorities.
• Long-term development planning and climate protection initiatives can also help create economic sustainability and open up new opportunities for economic growth and job creation in the field of renewable energy and energy efficiency.
• The Strategy can become an informational basis for making investment decisions. This will help Kazakhstan avoid investing in infrastructure and technologies that lock the economy in direction of high-carbon development, or from building up inefficient assets due to their depreciation and limited use in the future.
• The Strategy can be used to identify gaps and immediate priority actions for funding from the international donor community. From the perspective of donors, funding climate change programmes that also contribute to poverty reduction and development goals can reduce the risk of funding sources fragmentation.