Migration processes in the Republic of Kazakhstan
11.03.2021
On March 10, 2021, the VI International Scientific and Practical online Conference was held on the topic: "Current issues of Economic Sciences". The event, aimed at discussing current problems of economic development in the framework of solving problems in the real and financial sectors, accounting and auditing, management, marketing, as well as social development and information technologies, wa.organized by Kazakh University of Economics, Finance and International Trade.
The scientific conference was attended by experts of the Center for Regional Studies of the Economic Research Institute JSC Aitzhan Meyrembayev and Dina Bektleyeva with a report on "Migration processes in the regions of Kazakhstan in the context of a pandemic". Economists of the IEI conducted an analysis of the migration behavior of the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan during the period of quarantine measures. According to the study, migration trends continue in Kazakhstan, while the intensity of previously established processes (outflow or inflow) has changed compared to the same period in 2019.
|
Name of the region
|
2019
January-June
|
2020
January-June
|
Growth rate, %
|
Type of migration
|
|
West
Kazakhstan region
|
-202
|
-742
|
367
|
Outflow is growing
|
|
Akmola region
|
-783
|
-1 886
|
241
|
|
Pavlodar region
|
-419
|
-606
|
145
|
|
Kostanay region
|
-725
|
-1 010
|
139
|
|
North Kazakhstan region
|
-937
|
-1 076
|
115
|
|
East Kazakhstan region
|
-3 106
|
-3 539
|
114
|
|
Kyzylorda
region
|
-1 911
|
-1 946
|
102
|
|
Turkestan region
|
-5 972
|
-5 417
|
91
|
Outflow decreased
|
|
Zhambyl
region
|
-5 208
|
-4 461
|
86
|
|
Almaty region
|
-8 577
|
-6 535
|
76
|
|
Karaganda
region
|
-2 881
|
-2 031
|
70
|
|
Atyrau region
|
-717
|
-443
|
62
|
|
Mangistau
region
|
556
|
299
|
54
|
|
Aktobe region
|
-582
|
-44
|
8
|
|
Nur-Sultan
|
14 104
|
10 913
|
77
|
Inflow decreased
|
|
Shymkent
|
3 710
|
2 142
|
58
|
|
Almaty
|
13 650
|
16 382
|
120
|
Inflow is growing
|
From the table provided by experts, it can be seen that the outflow of population persists in all regions, but in 2020 there was an increase in outflow in 7 regions: West Kazakhstan, Akmola, Pavlodar, Kostanay, North Kazakhstan, East Kazakhstan, and Kyzylorda regions. In other regions, the outflow of population decreased. In the cities of Nur-Sultan and Shymkent, the inflow of population decreased, and in the city of Almaty it increased. The report notes that in 2020, compared to 2019, there was a decrease in the outflow of population from cities and an increase in the outflow from rural areas in Akmola, Zhambyl, Karaganda, and Kyzylorda regions.
- In Akmola, Zhambyl, Karaganda,Kyzylorda, Almaty and Atyrau regions, there is a decrease in the outflow of population from the city.
- In the North Kazakhstan, Aktobe, West Kazakhstan, Kostanay, Turkestan, East Kazakhstan regions and in the cities of Nur-Sultan and Shymkent, there is a decrease in the inflow to the city.
- In Mangystau, Pavlodar, there was an inflow of population to the cities, and in the city of Almaty, it increased.
In addition, the study examines the relationship between socio-economic factors and interregional mobility of the population.
|
Name of the region
|
Type of migration
|
GRP, %
|
Average monthly nominal salary, %
|
Unemployment rate, %
|
The ratio of supply and demand in the labor
market, %
|
Commissioning of
housing, %
|
Per Capita nominal income, %
|
The share of the population with incomes
below the subsistence minimum, %
|
Infant mortality, %
|
|
West
Kazakhstan region
|
Outflow is growing
|
102.1
|
102,5
|
0,1
|
141,0
|
102,3
|
93,9
|
-0,6
|
347,0
|
|
Pavlodar
region
|
108,0
|
112,3
|
0,0
|
130,4
|
121,5
|
97,5
|
-0,8
|
133,0
|
|
Kostanay
region
|
125,0
|
112,4
|
0,2
|
147,0
|
110,5
|
96,5
|
0,5
|
114,3
|
|
North
Kazakhstan region
|
114,3
|
118,4
|
0,2
|
91,1
|
117,1
|
98,1
|
0,5
|
123,8
|
|
Akmola
region
|
114,8
|
117,1
|
0,1
|
53,7
|
103,5
|
94,6
|
0,0
|
111,4
|
|
East
Kazakhstan region
|
114,2
|
115,0
|
0,1
|
152,8
|
106,1
|
98,5
|
-0,4
|
68,2
|
|
Kyzylorda
region
|
100,7
|
119,6
|
0,1
|
345,6
|
100,7
|
102,6
|
-0,4
|
104,2
|
|
|
|
Zhambyl
region
|
Outflow decreased
|
115,3
|
128,8
|
0,0
|
121,5
|
110,4
|
103,3
|
-0,2
|
63,5
|
|
Karaganda
region
|
123,3
|
116,7
|
0,0
|
165,6
|
111,9
|
98,5
|
0,3
|
128,1
|
|
Aktobe
region
|
102,2
|
112,1
|
0,1
|
105,2
|
111,3
|
94,0
|
0,2
|
55,7
|
|
Turkestan
region
|
115,7
|
136,9
|
0,0
|
134,7
|
82,5
|
102,7
|
-0,2
|
94,7
|
|
Mangistau
region
|
98,6
|
109,9
|
0,4
|
127,0
|
98,3
|
106,3
|
1,1
|
102,0
|
|
Almaty
region
|
114,7
|
126,6
|
0,1
|
85,1
|
130,0
|
96,6
|
0,1
|
95,6
|
|
Atyrau
region
|
105,7
|
119,5
|
0,1
|
73,7
|
55,1
|
100,9
|
-1,0
|
57,4
|
|
|
|
Nur-Sultan
|
Inflow decreased
|
121,6
|
96,6
|
0,1
|
94,3
|
127,4
|
92,3
|
0,6
|
69,2
|
|
Shymkent
|
94,1
|
118,5
|
0,1
|
376,9
|
119,5
|
92,1
|
0,0
|
116,7
|
|
Almaty
|
Inflow is growing
|
102,5
|
105,5
|
0,1
|
172,1
|
97,0
|
100,4
|
-1,0
|
76,8
|
|
Note:
 – the growth rate is better than the
national average;
 – the growth rate is
characterized positively, but the value lags behind the national average;
|
The results of the correlation and regression analysis of the indicators of socio-economic development of the regions and the indicators of migration activity of the population allowed us to draw the following conclusion: internal migration of the population in the regions has a noticeable (ranging from 0.5 to 0.7) direct relationship with the indicators of housing commissioning-0.682, the average per capita nominal monetary income of the population-0.545, and a noticeable inverse relationship with the share of the population with incomes below the subsistence minimum – -0.503.
According to the data obtained, most of the migration was caused by factors not taken into account in the regression analysis and various random causes.
In general, it can be concluded that the rate of internal migration is somewhat influenced by income, housing and employment opportunities. But the results of the correlation and regression analysis indicate the existence of other motives, for example: the desire to get an education, especially at the youngest working age; family reasons-from marriage or family breakup to moving as part of the family (children, unemployed members of the household). After the end of active work, the motives for moving may be a return to the previous place of residence, a desire to live in the best natural climatic conditions, etc.
To increase the impact of government measures in the regions, it is necessary to use a systematic approach to the study of factors of migration processes, and it is also necessary to develop point-based tools for regulating migration processes for each region.
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Saved: 10.11.2024
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