Analyzing the Unprecedented Shifts in February 2024's Inflation Trends
05.03.2024
Consumer inflation in the country has continued its downward trajectory for the twelfth consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since February 2022. Nonetheless monthly inflation accelerated and attained its annual peak. In February 2024 the country's inflation rates were as follows:
On an annual basis, price variations were observed as follows:
Paid services made the most significant contribution to inflation dynamics accounting for 39.4% of the total (i.e., out of the 9.3% total inflation rate, 3.7% was attributable to paid services) thereby marking a peak contribution over recent years. The contribution of paid services to total inflation was 20.1% in February of the previous year. The contribution of food products was 33.3% being traditionally a major inflation driver. Compared to April and May 2022 when the contribution of food products was at its highest their share in the overall inflation dynamics decreased by 21.7 percentage points from 55% to 33.3%. This share has declined by 18.1 percentage points since February of the previous year, with a 2.8 percentage point reduction compared to the previous month. The share of non-food products dropped from a peak of 32% in June of the previous year to 27.1%. Within the food category significant price increases were noted for:
Year-over-year price reductions were recorded for onions (down 42.5%), buckwheat (down 24.3%), sunflower oil (down 21.2%), granulated sugar (down 14.8%), and potatoes (down 12%). In the non-food category the largest price increases were observed for pharmaceutical products (up 11.7%), furniture and household items, clothing and footwear (both up 11%), personal care products (up 10.9%), tableware (up 9.2%), and construction materials (up 6.9%). Diesel fuel prices rose by 14.5%, gasoline by 13.6%, and liquefied gas in cylinders by 12.9%. In the services sector, prices increased for comprehensive leisur.organization services by 21.5%, sanatorium services by 16%, healthcare services by 13.9%, recreational and sporting event services by 13.3%, hairdressing and personal grooming services by 13.1%, and cellular communication services by 12.4%. Taxi fares increased by 11.7%, urban bus transport by 9.3%, rail passenger transport by 8.7%, and intercity bus transport by 8.2%. Air passenger transport experienced a 4% decrease. Tariffs for sewage services increased by 33.9%, central heating by 30.9%, cold water supply by 30.8%, garbage collection by 30.7%, hot water supply by 29.4%, and electricity by 19.9%. Consequently utilities services experienced a price hike of 14.4%. In summary inflation continues to decelerate against the high baseline of the previous year. However both monthly inflation and inflation in paid services continue to accelerate, potentially leading to price growth stagnation and an uptick in overall inflation.
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