Does University Selectivity Affect Graduates’ Earnings? Study Presented at the Institute
22.09.2026
 The Economic Research Institute hosted a research seminar titled “University Selectivity and Returns to Education: Evidence from Kazakhstan.” The event brought together experts and researchers from the Institute. The seminar was presented by Saule Kemelbayeva, Dean of the International School of Economics at Maqsut Narikbayev University and PhD in Economics from Newcastle University (United Kingdom). The discussion focused on whether studying at more selective universities provides graduates with advantages in the labour market. Higher earnings among graduates of such institutions may reflect not only the quality of education they receive, but also the fact that these universities tend to admit applicants with stronger academic performance in the first place. The study draws on changes to university admission rules in Kazakhstan. In 2012, the minimum Unified National Testing (UNT) score required for admission to national universities was raised from 50 to 70 points, while the threshold for other universities remained unchanged. This policy change provided an opportunity to assess how increased selectivity at national universities affected graduates’ subsequent earnings. The study employs a fuzzy regression discontinuity design (RDD). The approach compares outcomes for applicants whose UNT scores were close to the admission threshold. The UNT score serves as the running variable, while the 70-point cutoff substantially changes the probability of admission to a national university. This methodology makes it possible to distinguish the effect of attending a national university from pre-existing differences among students. The analysis is based on data from 6,791 full-time bachelor’s degree graduates who enrolled in 2012 at 7 national and 24 public universities and completed their studies in 2016. Mandatory pension contributions were used as a proxy for graduates’ earnings. The findings reveal no pronounced differences in the returns to education between more selective and relatively better-funded national universities and other public higher education institutions in Kazakhstan—at least during the early stages of graduates’ careers. At the same time, the study has several limitations. The analysis covers only the initial stage of graduates’ careers, meaning that differences in earnings may emerge later. In addition, it does not capture other potential benefits of attending more selective universities, including employment outcomes and non-economic effects. The findings also suggest that university selectivity should be taken into account when assessing institutional performance. Simply comparing graduates’ average earnings does not always make it possible to distinguish the university’s contribution from the characteristics students already possessed when they enrolled. Saule Kemelbayeva specialises in the economics of education, labour economics, and gender economics. Her research has been published in Education Economics, Eurasian Economic Review, and the International Journal of Educational Research. She has also served as a local consultant on World Bank projects in higher education and as an accreditation expert for several quality assurance agencies. 
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