The Economic Research Institute hosted a scientific seminar on “Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Vertical Markets with Price Regulation.” The guest speaker was Andrey Tkachenko, Assistant Professor of Economics at the Graduate School of Business, Nazarbayev University, who holds a PhD in Economics from Bocconi University (Italy).
During the seminar, the expert presented the findings of a study on the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on pharmaceutical prices in Kazakhstan, conducted jointly with Akbobek Akhmedyarova, Director of the Center for Economic Modeling Development at Nazarbayev University/NAC Analytica.
The analysis covered a selected range of medicines across various regions of Kazakhstan from 2017 to 2025. Particular attention was paid to government price regulation, competition among manufacturers, and the mechanisms underlying wholesale and retail pharmaceutical pricing.
The study found that government price regulation significantly reduces the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on medicine prices. Specifically, exchange rate pass-through to the prices of regulated medicines is approximately one-fifth of that observed for medicines with unregulated prices. In the unregulated market, exchange rate fluctuations have a greater impact on wholesale prices than on retail prices, while stronger competition is associated with higher exchange rate pass-through.
At the same time, the authors emphasized that reduced price sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations does not necessarily mean that consumers are fully protected. Exchange rate changes may also affect medicine availability, the profitability of market participants, and public procurement.
The seminar provided a platform for active professional dialogue and engaging discussion. Participants exchanged views on relevant issues with practical implications for advancing scientific research and strengthening the Institute’s analytical work.
